Part II: An Optimist, A Pessimist, & A Realist Walk into Safeco Field

At the beginning of the season, we published an article that presented three views on how this Seattle Mariners season would go: an optimistic take, a pessimistic take, and a realistic take. Incredibly, the 2018 Ners campaign has thus far unfolded even better than the optimistic prediction. But the season is far from over. So, given where the team is now, what direction might we be we headed?

The Optimist.

The Mariners have broken the 20 games over .500 threshold. Their sights now turn to the defending World Series champion Astros and toward automatically qualifying for the ALDS.

From July 30 to August 22, the Mariners and Astros play three 3-game series, two of them at Safeco Field. Behind screaming crowds of 45,000 people, James Paxton, Marco Gonzales and Felix Hernandez power their way through dominant starts and the Astros rotation meets regression in the form of Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura and Nelson Cruz’s bats.

In a day game on August 22, the Mariners go for the sweep and are locked in a 0-0 battle – but Robinson Cano (who is still hitless since returning to the lineup roughly a week earlier) hits a pinch-hit, walk-off homer to send Safeco into euphoria and stake the Mariners to a two-game lead in the AL West.

The two teams come together again for a September 17 through 19 series in Houston. The division is even again, but by this time the Astros have lost 7 of their last 9 to the Mariners, and they can’t solve the magical puzzle that is the all-star tandem of Segura and Haniger. The Mariners take two of three, with Diaz slamming the door for his 50th save to clinch the series.

With seven games out of their final 10 against the Rangers, the Mariners close the season 8-2, clinching the division and their 100th win on the second-to-last day of the season behind a complete game shutout from Marco Gonzales.

The sprint to beat the Astros in the division pays off, as the Mariners not only dodge the Wild Card game but draw the Indians, the worst American League playoff team by far. The series isn’t a contest, as the five of seven the Mariners took from Cleveland during the regular season translates to 3-1 series win, capped by a dominant Mike Leake performance in Cleveland. Yonder Alonso, Mariners tormenter, goes 0-for-14 with 8 strikeouts in the series.

The ALCS proves to be a different beast altogether. The Mariners’ playoff bogeymen, the Yankees, fresh off winning 110 games in a near record-breaking effort, batter the Ners from the start, with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres all taking Felix deep in game one. The Mariners, down 2-0, grind out a playoff win at home behind Gonzales and Segura, but it’s not enough, as the Bronx Bombers cruise to a 4-1 series win and a week later, championship No. 28.

But damn it, October is special at Safeco Field again. The entire city gears up for 2019, and optimism abounds around the Ners clubhouse.

The Pessimist.

The Ners are on their high-horse after splitting with the Red Sox, confident that they’ve taken care of business in the first part of their horrific June schedule. Everyone is happy, the city believes again, and the team’s playoff odds are the highest they have been since 2003. The squad boards the plane and heads out east for what is perhaps their biggest test of the year: 6 straight games away against New York and Boston.

Bang, bang, bang. The M’s pitching gets absolutely destroyed by the Bronx Bombers in the three-game set at Yankee Stadium. The wonderful surprise that has been Marco Gonzales proves too good to be true, as he struggles to get out of the second inning in the opener, surrendering 7 earned on 4 home runs – two to Aaron Judge. The Ners lose 10-4. Felix battles in the second game, but his indifference on pitching to contact forces his pitch count to skyrocket, and he can only get through 5. The bullpen blows it, and Seattle loses 4-2. In the finale, the M’s turn to their ace, James Paxton, to right the ship – but even his quality start does not prove fruitful as Luis Severino blanks the bats, and Seattle loses 3-0.

This stumble sets up a horrific series in Boston, with the Red Sox hitting their stride and hoping to show up Seattle after the M’s put up a decent series against them this past weekend. The Ners manage to eek out only one victory – surprisingly, yet another Wade LeBlanc W – but finish the Boston/New York swing at 1-5, falling to 4.5 games back of the Astros, who continue to win in unprecedented ways. Woof.

Boston and NY are two teams that the M’s were hoping to compete with down the stretch of the season, and their poor performance against them sets into motion a series of unfortunate events that cue the season’s unraveling. Confidence is low as the squad heads to Baltimore, and the M’s barely squeak out a split of the 4-game series. When they return to Seattle, the Royals mash 8 home runs in 3 games, wrecking the Seattle starters and taking 2 of 3.

The team limps into Los Angeles to face their arch rivals, who are hell-bent on revenge after Seattle swept them in early June. The Angels return the favor, led by (who else?) Mike Trout, who hits two more multi-home run games.

But the true dagger in this series happens in the finale, when Jean Segura collides with Ben Gamel on a shallow pop fly to left. The fall is ugly – but the injury uglier. Jean, who is hitting .353 at this point and has finally crept into the top 5 AL SS voting – rips open his ACL like it was wrapping paper on Christmas morning. He joins Cano on the DL, and Andrew Romine and Gordon Beckham settle into an uncomfortable platoon at short. Over the next two months, neither amasses more than 10 hits.

The LAA series not only lights the fuse in the Mariners’ downfall – it kick-starts the Angels, who (helped by news revealing that Ohtani will be allowed to hit) begin to believe again. As they watch the M’s play .500 ball down the stretch, they begin to win series after series, including big sweeps of Oakland and Texas. As the Ners fall, the Halos rise, passing them for the second AL Wild Card spot in mid-September.

Cano returns to the lineup and Seattle turns to him to step up as the ultimate anti-hero savior – but Robby just isn’t the same without his diuretics. He swings a weak .231 and cracks zero dingers, confirming the public’s belief that he was indeed juicing. The season ends with the Ners missing out on the playoffs by 2 games, watching as the Angels’ miraculous season turnaround leaves Seattle standing on the outside yet again.

The Realist.

The road trip out east is a tough stretch but the Mariners survive the Red Sox and Yankees and feast on the Orioles to salvage the trip. Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz combine to score more runs between them than the entire Baltimore lineup. The energy starts to build at Safeco as the team puts more distance between them and the (low key) reeling Angels. The Ners win that series, taking two of three.

Going into the All Star break, the Ners have fallen back to second place in the AL West for good, but remain in one of the Wild Card spots, comfortably ahead of the Angels and the A’s. They actually start losing one run games here and there, and the depth of the rotation is tested. Marco Gonzales starts skipping starts to manage his inning load and James Paxton misses some time with a blister issue. Casey Lawrence and Roenis Elias are both called upon to make spot starts and hold up decently well.

The trade deadline comes and Trader Jerry starts shopping around for starting pitching. Despite only having the equivalent of a single crumpled dollar bill, an old receipt from a sushi place he likes, and a paperclip in his wallet, he pulls a classic Jerry move and gets a young starter with upside that’s still under club control.

The playoff race itself is not entirely intriguing, as the Mariners float between three and five games back of the Yankees for the first Wild Card spot, unable to close the gap. However, they maintain a comfortable seven-to-ten game lead on the Angels who crumble down the stretch. This allows Scott to set his rotation and rest guys ahead of the Wild Card matchup with the equally prepared Yankees.

Yankee Stadium gets loud like only a congregation of almost 60,000 New Yorkers can. James Paxton faces off against Luis Severino in an absolute pitchers duel. The Yankees take an early 2-0 lead on an Aaron Judge home run but Paxton settles down to retire the next 10 batters. Severino has no trouble the first time through the lineup but, the second time up, Dee Gordon walks and steals second and third off Gary Sanchez. Jean scores him on a sac fly and the game goes into the 4th, 2-1 bad guys.

Pax is pulled in the 7th after allowing the first two men to reach, but Nicasio gets out of it. The top of the 8th comes with the Ners down 2-1, having to go through Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman to get the win. Nelson Cruz leads off the 8th with a hit by pitch and is pinch run for by Ian Miller. Manager Aaron Boone elects to leave in Betances to face the lefty Seager. Ian Miller, pinch running for Nelson, steals second and moves to third when Kyle grounds out to second.

Now Boone goes to Chapman to face Denard “Nard Dog” Span. He works the count full before walking, bringing Ryon Healy to the plate. 1st and 3rd, one out. On the first pitch he turns on an inside fastball and absolutely crushes it, but ten feet to the left of the third base foul pole. On the next pitch, Chapman gets Healy on a slider away and induces a classic 6-4-3 double play to end the threat. The 9th inning is 3 up, 3 down and the M’s are left wondering what could have been as the Yankees celebrate.

#Opinion