The Felix Question

If we make the playoffs, how should The King be used?

Felix Hernandez is not the Cy Young winner we grew used to during the past 17 years of dismal Mariners baseball. He’s 8-8, gives up leads almost immediately, and just doesn’t seem to have that old spark anymore. He was great when the team was bad; now he’s meh when the team is good. So begs the question: if the Mariners make the playoffs, what should Seattle do with The King? The Mariner Muse Editors present three differing opinions on how we should use Felix.

Travis: Use Paxton in the ALWC, then Felix Game 1

“Who says you can’t be romantic about baseball?” That’s probably the most recognized line from the movie Moneyball – that, or “There’s 50 feet of crap...then there’s us.” Unfortunately, the Mariners now face a situation where both lines are applicable.

For the past 17 years, there has been good teams and bad teams – and then 50 feet of crap, and then the Ners. The longest playoff drought of all the Big 5 sports teams certainly earns us this lowly label. But in the middle of this drought there has been one constant bright spot: Felix Hernandez. From debuting with the Mariners at age 19, to winning a Cy Young, to throwing the only perfect game in franchise history (below), The King has truly made the past ~17 years at least somewhat bearable.

And now that the Mariners are in a striking position for the playoffs – I’m not making any assumptions now, thanks to the pesky A’s – poor Felix has taken a slight turn downhill. He hasn’t been horrible at all; he’s pitching .500 and still shows signs of brilliance (like that Tampa Bay game). But we also have a few decent other pitchers in our staff. So if it came down to it and the M’s made the Wild Card game, here’s how I would do the playoffs:

James Paxton pitches the AL Wild Card game. Then (if we win) the rotation goes Felix, Marco, Paxton.

Imagine Felix Hernandez heading into Boston or New York to pitch his first ever playoff game. The single-player adrenaline might be unmatched, even considering the opposing team; finally, The King gets his shot at glory. He would scream his face off. He would pitch like he always does, cautiously dancing around all the bombers and probably walking a good 3 or 4...but he would use every pitch he’s got to give the Ners 5+ good innings. There’s simply no way he wouldn’t be the biggest competitor on the diamond that night; a revered pitcher who has been thwarted a chance to shine in October is not going to mail in a performance. And you know what? While Felix doesn’t have the stuff that got him the Cy Young in 2010 or 27 straight outs in 2012, I’ll take his competitive edge in Game 1 any day. If Servais wants to set an example for the younger players on the squad (i.e. Marco Gonzales, who’d be throwing Game 2), then he should turn to his deserving veteran to kick things off with fire and fury.

“Deserves” is a word that rarely flies with sports fans. Why should you put the success of a team on a guy who “deserves” his chance in the sun? Why would you risk failure just to give a nod to a guy who’s put in the work, but maybe hasn’t shown the desired results?

Because putting in the work and failing, deserving something and possibly not getting it – it all creates an edge. And it’s that edge that I want in Game 1. We wouldn’t be a better team than Boston or New York, but if we take a shot and seek that competitive edge, we can potentially squeak out a Game 1 winner on the back of our old workhorse and a vintage performance. Felix could be the Billy Chapel of the 2018 Ners.

So who says he wouldn’t show up with a performance à la Tampa Bay? Who says the gods of America’s Pastime wouldn’t look down fondly on him and give him one last boost in potentially the only playoff game of his incredible career? Who says the moment couldn’t happen, that it could all work out in a perfect, magical way? Again: who says you can’t be romantic about baseball? Not I, and definitely not Felix Hernandez. He’s still the competitor he’s always been, and – if we make it there – he gets the ball in Game 1.

Anthony: Use Paxton, Marco, and Leake over Felix

James Paxton is pitching the wild card game, at least if we are able to hold off the gadfly-esque Oakland A’s and can set up our rotation for the playoffs. Assuming Paxton is able to start again on four days rest, he will make his next appearance in game 3 in the ALDS. Marco Gonzales should start game 1. Marco has been our second best pitcher, and the only concern is how fresh he will be after his first full season of starting. (Servais should start skipping Gonzales in the rotation to keep his arm fresh. He has never thrown more than 120 innings in a season, and will likely pass that point in his next start).

Game 2 should go to Mike Leake. I wish I could convince myself that Wade LeBlanc deserves this start, but he should slot in at long-relief once the playoffs begin. LeBlanc has the most experience coming out of the bullpen, having made 50 relief appearances for the Pirates last year, and could have a big impact if called upon to keep a game close if one of our starting pitchers struggles early. But back to the main question: Felix or Leake.

Statistically, Leake has the advantage over Felix this year. He has a slightly better FIP, a much better ERA+, and a better record and ERA if you’re into those things. He should start over Felix. I want the M’s to win as many games in the playoffs as possible. I differ from Travis: this is not a time to let sentimentality and nostalgia to influence decisions. If we get swept and Felix does not make an appearance in the playoffs, it will look really bad and feel worse. But I would rather we get swept 0-3 and give ourselves the best chance to win all three games than go 0-3 and watch Felix pulled in the second inning with Mike Leake sitting on the bench.

I love The King with all my heart. He is, quite literally, my WiFi password. And he does deserve a playoff start…but it should come at Safeco in Game 4, with 47,000 Mariners fans screaming for every whiff, ground ball, and pop fly. The King’s Court for that game would be incredible. If Felix manages to regain some of his lost form and consistently outpitches Leake down the stretch, I could be convinced to give him the ball in the second game. But as it stands right now, Mike Leake is the better pitcher and should be starting in Game 2 of the ALDS if we get there.

Patrick: Use Paxton and Marco, then turn to Felix

I can see both sides of the argument here. On the one hand, Felix isn’t all-caps FELIX or bold Felix, and he might not even be underline Felix or italics anymore. He’s been struggling all year and hasn’t put together any solid stretches as of yet.

On the other hand, he’s given everything to this franchise, through good, mostly bad and definitely ugly, and has certainly earned a prominent playoff role when (if) the team finally gets there. He also has a certain big game intangible about him, where if he knows what he’s about to pitch in is a crucial contest, he shows more fire and heart than he normally does, amounting to far more than most mere mortals can give.

With those things established, I think you can make pretty much any case possible for Felix under this framework, from him pitching the Wild Card game to him not pitching at all in the ALDS.

Just given how he’s ascended to ace status and showed flashes of utter single-game dominance this year, I think James Paxton has to pitch the Wild Card game. Any other choice will get second-guessed to death, and we have to go into the game with that pressure. Paxton is the best guy with the best stuff, and is therefore the best option.

It gets complicated after that. If the game was tomorrow, I’d start Marco Gonzales in ALDS Game 1. He’s been more consistent than even Paxton has lately (injuries have obviously played a role in that, however). But the statistics show that Marco is now leading the team’s pitchers in WAR…To put it simply, Gonzales has been a beast.

Game 2 is where I’d really start to feel bad about not starting Felix. Mike Leake is...fine? He pitched well yesterday, but he’s also had games where he’s struggled to get out of the early innings, which in playoff games is absolutely disastrous. If the series is against the Yankees, then Game 2 is at Yankee Stadium. Given his phe-nomenal history in that building, I think I’d have to start Felix. But if we were to be playing against was the Astros, I’d probably pitch Leake. The Red Sox? Flip a coin, I guess.

I know there’s a chance Paxton could start Game 3, and he’d probably have to if the Ners are down 2-0 in the series, but if the M’s do steal a game on the road, I don’t know if I could picture a more emotional fan experience than watching Felix pitch that Game 3. So get the man a home playoff game, and watch him do the work he’s always wanted to do.

#Pitching #NerNostalgia