I said go 12-14. We Went 17-9.

Two Muses ago, I looked at the then-upcoming June calendar and shivered. The prospect of our Mariners – hot off their best start since 2003 – suddenly being faced with the task of Houston away, a big series at home vs. then-decent Angels, and 10 games against Boston and New York was daunting to say the least. Breaking down the Ners’ calendar, I took a realistic look at what we could expect from the team, extracting the bare bones of what we would need to do to limp out of June and still be in competition for the playoffs. In the end, I called on the M’s to somehow find a way to go 12-14.

They went 17-9.

The Mariners didn’t limp out of June, they sprinted out of June and hit July full-speed. As a die-hard Mariners fan, I am ecstatic right now. As a part-time coverer of the Mariners, I am scratching my head as to how this team – which was predicted to finish third in the AL West – continues to exceed expectations. The run differential is just +22 for crying out loud. (The Astros have a +170, my god).

What had been a daunting month turned into a successful month, as the M’s boosted their mark to 23 games over .500 and just 0.5 games behind Houston in the AL West. Yet while June was surprising indeed, it was educational as well. Here are the three biggest things we learned over the past month.

1) It’s official: the 2018 Ners are not a fluke.

Perhaps it’s the nearly two decades of misery that we have experienced as baseball fans in Pacific Northwest (when it seemed that any moment of Mariner brilliance was quickly brought back down to a crushing reality) that when the Ners suddenly string winning streaks together, we all feel it really isn’t going to last. Perhaps it’s the spoonfuls of optimism that we were given at the beginning of recent years, only to watch teams underperform or find ways of choking at the 11th hour of the season where even when we play well, it still feels like we are riding a wave that will eventually hit the shore. Perhaps it’s just that for the past 17 years, we haven’t been good. Whatever it is, many had an inkling that the 2018 Mariners’ great start to the season was merely a wisp of smoke – that we were in danger of blinking, and it would suddenly disappear into .500 mediocrity. We had all been there before; we were all subconsciously expecting to experience it again.

But this past month showed us that this is not the case at all. There is no fluke with this team; they will take care of business when expected to. Gone are the days when we’d slip up against teams that were theoretically worse than us, losing 2 of 3 or 3 of 4 to squads like Baltimore, Tampa Bay, or KC. No. This year, we’re beating them – and convincingly. And if we fall behind, we’ll find a way to get back into the game. And if we lose, we’ll bounce back the next day.

I had said that it was unfair to expect a team to win any 4-game series away, regardless of how much worse the competition was. Yet as I watched us take 3 of 4 in Tampa Bay and sweep Baltimore in Camden Yards (not to mention a clean sweep of KC at home) I nodded my head, realizing that this Ners squad is on a level way above the bottom-dwellers of the AL. It feels excellent to be here finally, eh?

The 2018 Mariners are not a fluke. So buckle up, M’s fans: we’re going to continue to beat teams that are worse than us, and this good season is not going anywhere.

2) The Yankees and Red Sox are decidedly better than the Ners.

This one many of us probably knew deep down, but in the excitement Seattle’s excellent start to the season, fantasies about us being legitimate contenders to Boston and New York certainly abounded. And that fascinating 4-game series

against the Red Sox in Safeco was enough to continue to fuel that optimism, as Wade LeBlanc made everybody believe that we could not only contend with the best in the AL – we could beat hem 1-0 with our #5 starter, screaming his face off à la 2016 King Felix against Toronto.

But those six games away at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium put those questions to rest. The second thing we learned from June is that the two teams atop the East are significantly better than Seattle. New York has the best lineup I’ve seen in a decade, and Boston’s not far behind. This is of course scary because the Ners’ playoff hopes will most likely have to go through a one-game playoff in either New York or Boston.

But here’s an interesting (and not too far-fetched of a) scenario. Let’s say it’s mid-September, and the Mariners recognize that the AL West title is just a bit too far out of their reach – that their season is bound to run through that daunting AL Wild Card game. This would mean that they could easily set their rotation in September to give Paxton the ball in the one-game playoff.

Meanwhile, let’s say that Boston and New York keep a tight race in the AL East – which looks as if it will most likely happen – and that both teams play their heart out down the stretch, in attempt of earning an automatic birth in the postseason by avoiding the AL Wild Card playoff game. This would mean that neither Boston nor New York would be able to set their rotation in advance like Seattle can…which in turn would mean that whichever team (the Red Sox or the Yankees) ends up 2nd in the East has to throw whatever starter is available against Seattle and a fully-rested Big Maple.

Hm.

3) The Ners actually match up decently well against Houston.

This one is easily the most intriguing of the three things we learned from the Ners’ stellar performance in June. We kicked off this “go 12-14” stretch with an awkward two-game set down in Houston, where Seattle entered a game up in the AL West. James Paxton took it to the Astros in the first game, and the Mariners’ offense hopped all over Dallas Keuchel, resulting in a convincing 7-1 win for the surging M’s.

The second game was hard-fought and lost in the late innings – but perhaps as to be expected. We didn’t really think we were going to sweep Houston in Houston, did we? No, that would have been unreasonable. But what we learned from that little series is that the M’s starters can keep Houston’s bats off-balance, and that Seattle’s offense can crack it against any starter (except maybe Verlander, who we are yet to see this season).

Here’s what makes this so intriguing. It looks like the A’s and Angels are not going to make a run for the AL Wild Card, and thus will not challenge Seattle and Houston for the AL West crown. It also looks like both Seattle and Houston are going to continue to beat up on teams that are worse than them, as they both did in June. So as we enter July with only ½ game separating the Ners and Stros, the battle for the top spot in the West will come down to the 13 games HOU/SEA still have to play. And since we saw that Seattle can match up well against the Astros, the Ners just might be able to pull off a few key victories and maybe – just maybe – take the Division. It’s optimistic, yes. But it’s not out of the picture in the slightest.

I asked for the Ners to go 12-14, and they went 17-9. What’s next? I can’t wait to see.

#TeamOverview