Pitching Breakdown: How James Paxton Moved from 16 K's to 0 Hits

In the Rotation Roundup in the latest edition of the Mariner Muse, I called on James Paxton to take the next step to becoming an elite pitcher. Specifically, I wanted to see him move beyond pitching to try and strike people out and be more economical with his pitch count. I wanted him to make hitters useful, not just make them whiff, or in other words, to see The Big Maple pitch to contact by throwing more low pitches and outside fastballs to induce rollover groundballs and therefore keep his pitch total low. Racking up K’s is fun, but racking up K’s means racking up pitch count. James had never thrown a complete game in his life before last night, because he was addicted to the former.

Clearly Paxton reads the Muse, because he listened. That roundup was posted on Monday’s off-day, and Tuesday night saw the Big Maple throw not only his first ever complete game, but the 6th no-hitter in Mariner history. He did it with 99 pitches, striking out only 7. It was total dominance.

The first inning, it looked like Pax had changed nothing from his game before. He struck out the first 2 batters of the game by throwing gas, relying on high fastballs and cutters over the plate to mow down Hernandez and Donaldson right. But the third batter of the inning, Yangervis Solarte, recognized Pax’s pattern to the prior batters: fastballs early, trying to get ahead in the count so he could then throw pitches to try and get them to whiff. Solarte was ready and hit a decently-hard line drive; Dee Gordon had to make a great catch to get the out.

Pax changed his approach immediately in the second. Look at this pitch to Justin Smoak:

That’s the first pitch of the inning, and Smoak – who probably had been told to swing early – was ready to hack. But Pax throws it low and away, and the dead-pull hitter rolls it over to Jean Segura for the out. One pitch, one away – one step closer to a manageable pitch count.

James struggled a bit in the third, primarily because he couldn’t find the strike zone. He walked two, and then hung a couple of pitches, both of which were cranked – but, of course, caught. He whiffed Solarte on three straight pitches in the third (all low) but then got greedy and tried to strike out Smoak, walking him on four pitches (all high fastballs). Mike Zunino then visited the mound and reminded James to stay low; hitters can’t hit James when he’s at the bottom of the strike zone. Or if they do, they’ll probably hit a groundball.

Lo and behold, look at this pitch to Kevin Pillar:

After jamming him inside with three great pitches, Pax goes after him with a simply unfair curve, low in the zone. Millar is very off-balance, and the only thing he can do is whiff over the top of it – or roll over to third. He does the latter, and James gets his double-play.

Pax didn’t look back after this. First batter next inning: jams an eager Russel Martin, getting him to pop up to Robby Cano. One pitch, one away.

Second batter (left): 0-1 curve, perfectly located – again, low and away. Kendrys Morales grounds out to third. See how his arms are extended and the ball is hitting off the end of his bat? Ideal.

Third batter (left) 0-2 curve, again away, located just off the plate. It would have been a ballsy take by Lourdes Gurriel, so he has to swing – the best he can do is foul it off or roll over. He does the latter, resulting in an easy ground ball to Jean.

James threw 6 pitches in that inning. That was when the chatter about the no-no really began, but that was also when The Big Maple realized he could trust his stuff to do more than induce whiffs.

He could trust his stuff to induce useful contact, and he could trust his defense to make the plays behind him.

It’s an unwritten part of the magic of baseball that every no-no or perfecto has one great defensive play to back it up. Sometimes it’s early in the game; the best play on Felix’ 2012 perfect game (still the last to be thrown, by the way) was Eric Thames’ great grab in right on the first play of the game. Mark Buehrle’s no-hitter was held in tact by DeWayne Wise (below, left) robbing a dinger in the 9th. And the final out of Jordan Zimmerman’s no-no was recorded on a phenomenal diving grab by left fielder Steven Souza. (below, right)

The stellar defensive play that helped The Big Maple’s bit of history was, of course, Kyle Seager’s incredible gem in the 7th inning. James makes a good pitch to get Pillar to rollover – it catches a bit more of the plate than is ideal, but it’s low and hard, so naturally results in a groundball. However, the speedy Toronto turf gives the ball some legs, and Kyle has to remind us why he’s a gold glove winner to keep the goose egg for Blue Jay hits.

** Side note: Ryon Healy was rooting for the no-hitter more than anybody else on the field. He got so pumped after Kyle’s play, pumping his fist like he was at a rock show. I know that Pax was obviously happy – as was Seager – but it was super cool to see a new team member get really excited. Good job Ryon. The dude made a great pick at first a couple plays earlier as well. Loving this team right now. **

James pitched to contact again in the eighth. The Blue Jays hit a couple of balls hard, forcing Ben Gamel and Dee to make decent plays to keep the no-no intact. But James was still trusting his stuff and his defense.

In the 9th, Pax was in danger of letting his 16-K self get the best of him. After striking out Hernandez for the penultimate out, he got greedy. Paxton really really really wanted to record the final out of his no-hitter in front of his native Canadians via a strikeout.

James threw a 100mph heater on the 98th pitch of the evening. That’s fucking awesome. But it was bad for his psyche. Like a bull, Pax saw red when the triple-digits flashed on the radar screen. You could read his mind: I want to do that again. He then shook off his catcher.

HE SHOOK OFF HIS CATCHER.

For a no-no, this is a no-no. Your catcher is the part of the battery that isn’t caught up in the drama of potentially making history. While James Paxton’s mind is whirring about all that’s going on, Mike Zunino is still calling a baseball game. And he knew Pax wanted to throw 100 again. He also knew that Donaldson knew this. Therefore, Zunino called for a curve – but Pax shook his head.

Pax didn’t throw 100; he threw 98. He didn’t throw it out of the zone as he probably should have; he threw it right down the middle of the plate. He didn’t fool Donaldson; Donaldson was completely prepared. The resulting groundball was absolutely smoked.

In the books, it goes down as a 5-3 put out. In the books, the game goes down as the 6th no-hitter in Ners lore. But for James Paxton, that final pitch he threw was a reminder – a scary reminder – of the dangers of getting caught up in the hype of being a power pitcher who is intent on racking up strikeouts. An 0-2 curve in the dirt would have been much more effective.

Still, none of that should takeaway from the adjustments Paxton made throughout last night’s game. After a 16-K performance his outing before, he could have easily hit copy/paste and done the same, which probably would have resulted in him hitting double-digit strikeouts again, but only allowing him to make it through 6 or 7 innings before his pitch count surpassed 100. Instead, he took that first step to becoming one of the truly elite pitchers in the game: trusting his stuff to induce ideal contact and trusting his defense to make plays behind him.

There will be more games where James makes 10, 12, 14 batters whiff. But I desperately hope for more games where he makes batters useful as well – because last night was a treat beyond just being a piece of history.

Congrats, James Paxton. Enjoy the moment, but don’t get caught up in it. Trust your stuff and keep it up.

#Pitching