Rotation Roundup: May 7

Disclaimer: this was originally published in Monday's off-day newsletter. While a few edits have been made, the majority of the text is still the same.

James Paxton: A-

It’s tough to be critical at all of Paxton after his 16-K performance against Oakland last week. That was utter dominance. However, there are a couple of things that James could work on to get better. Here’s where my mind is at: James Paxton has never pitched a complete game. Not only that, James Paxton has only pitched into the ninth inning once in his career.

The Big Maple – like Felix (see below…way below) – thinks that he is a power pitcher, and pitches that way. He never throws to try and induce bad contact, he throws to try and induce no contact. Yes, Paxton is a better power pitcher than Felix is, but the fact remains that there may come a time soon when we’re going to need innings, not K’s, out of James…and when that day comes, I’m fearful we’re going to get somewhere around 5 IP, but with 10+ strikeouts. If James is to move into the role as one of baseball’s elite pitchers, he’s going to have to find a way to resist trying to only make hitters look stupid, and instead make them be useful here and there.

Post Script: Paxton obviously made the adjustments. Read our full breakdown of how his no-hitter was a result of him trying to make batters useful -- not just make them whiff.

Marco Gonzales: B+

Marco Gonzales is not a stellar pitcher. But Marco Gonzales is a good pitcher. And as a 4th guy in a rotation, “good” is all we can ask from Marco. He has found a way to battle, going 6 innings in each of his past three starts, never giving up more than 4 runs. (0 in one, 2 in another, 4 in the latest). He has found a way to work his pitch count up as well, crossing the 100 mark for the first time this season in his last game. To be completely honest, I don’t want Marco to change a thing – because the bottom line is this: he keeps us in the game. His changeup is still excellent when he can get to it, and even on days when he doesn’t quite have his best stuff, he alters his approach to favor lean on the one, maybe two pitches he feels confident in. I now expect 5-6 innings from Marco every start.

Mike Leake: B

Yeah, Leake had a game recently where he gave up 5 in the first and 2 more in the second. Yeah, the only reason Leake won his last game was because the Ners put up 12 to back him up. But I’m still alright with Mike Leake – because Mike Leake is a middle of the rotation guy. I’m not expecting 16-K gems out of him like Pax, or him to feel pressure to reinvent himself like Felix. Of course not. But I don’t want Mike to change anything right now. This may come as a surprise to some of you – but I like how Leake goes after batters early in counts, without fearing giving up a few runs here and there. Up until these past couple appearances, it had worked; Leake was eating innings like a machine, averaging over 6 per start. Yeah, they were rarely perfect – he’d often give up 2 or 3 – but remember, we have a good offense. Let’s see how the next start goes before criticizing him for the past couple…I have a sneaking suspicion that he’ll be bouncing back to his true form real quick.

Post Script: Leake, like Paxton, must read the Muse. He didn't change anything in his approach Thursday night, looking past the blips of his past two starts and still aggressively going after batters -- not worried about giving up a few runs in exchange for getting deep into the game.

Felix Hernandez: B-

Felix just doesn’t get it. He just doesn’t understand that his body is different than it was 8 years ago, that his stuff is different than it was 8 years ago, and that hitters have a different approach when they face him than when they would 8 years ago. He still pitches as if he’s slinging electricity up there on the mound and can fool anybody with his dazzling changeup and power fastball. He can’t. Today’s hitters know this – so they approach him looking to take pitches early in the count, when Felix is trying to get ahead. This results in him either giving up dingers – like yesterday – or him falling behind. Also, Felix still thinks he’s a strikeout pitcher, and therefore hates to give into people. He’d rather walk a hitter than pitch to contact. Today’s hitters know this as well – so they’ll wait him out if they don’t see what they like early.

2018 Felix Hernandez needs to get back to what he was trying out at the beginning of the year, and reenter the Johnny Cueto School of Reinvention. What happened to the three windups we saw early this season? What happened to the low fastballs that were clearly designed to try and induce groundballs early in the count to preserve pitch count? If I could ask for anything, it would be for Felix to throw his next game with this game plan: find a way to throw changeup (which, by the way, still has great movement) to get ahead in the count against the 3-4-5 hitters, and throw the fastball – not the sinker – low and away to the other hitters to try and induce an early-count rollover. If that happens, y’all will be hearing from me on twitter because I’ll be so pumped. But unfortunately, I don’t think you’ll be hearing from me on twitter…cause I just don’t see Felix adapting.

#Pitching