2018 Offseason: What's Been Done & What Still Needs to Happen

The Mariners and GM Jerry Dipoto have been suspiciously quiet this off-season. Eager for a bit of action, the MM editors have taken up the cause, looking back at the best thing we've done thus far – and what still needs to happen.

Best Thing We've Done So Far

Patrick: Signing Hisashi Iwakuma to a MiLB contract

Here’s a fact: Hisashi Iwakuma has struggled with health immensely in recent years. Here’s another fact: When he has been somewhat healthy lately, he hasn’t been very good. But having Iwakuma around to prove himself in Spring Training is the perfect risk-free way to keep your second best starter of the last decade in the fold in case he has anything left to give. Gun to my head, I don’t think he makes the team or pitches again in the Major Leagues. But if he has anything left in the tank, the Mariners are likely ready to give him a chance to prove it. Frankly, it’s what he deserves after proving to be an incredible investment and value in the last five years.

Travis: Signing Dee Gordon

Jarrod Dyson was sneaky awesome last year. His speed improved us as a threat on the basepaths, his defense was insane (he led the league in outfield assists for a while), and his bat wasn’t too shabby either. But Dyson was old, and resigning him was certainly a risk. So, we did the next best thing: sign a younger Dyson. Dee Gordon is essentially a younger Jarrod Dyson, filling every hole that might be left. Yeah, he’ll be transitioning to CF instead of starting there naturally...but apparently he already looks great. I just can’t wait to see him leadoff and run the bases.

Anthony: Trading for Ryon Healy

Healy is young, cheap, and is a classic buy-low option after struggling to match the shiny numbers he put up his rookie year. While his sophomore season was a step back, Healy was a slightly better hitter than Danny Valencia in terms of wRC+, OPS, and batting average in 2017, and he hit 10 more dingers. While Healy should not leave the friendly confines of first-base on defense, I am optimistic he can return to his rookie year level offensively, which will be a welcome sight in Safeco. Giving up Emilio Pagan was disappointing, as his ability to throw multiple innings saved us many times. However, there are others ways to fill the bullpen and hopefully we won’t be relying on them to go five innings every night. Healy is a solid buy-low, long-term option that fills a position that has been awful. Sign me up.

Charlie: Signing Juan Nicasio

I’m not terribly fond of much that’s happened so far this offseason especially considering my heart fluttered for a good while when I thought the Ners had a chance at Otani. All that maneuvering to accumulate slot-money proved fruitless, however. But I think Nicasio should provided a solid anchor, power-arm at the back-end of the ‘Pen. Sure, bullpen guys can be a total crapshoot sometimes, but Nicasio provides much needed stability.

What We Still Need To Do

(AKA How do we fix the starting rotation?)

We can all agree that the starting rotation is the team’s biggest detriment right now. But how should we go about solving it?

Patrick: Sign Jason Vargas

Here’s the problem with the general way Jerry Dipoto has built rotations in his three years on the job: he’s relied too much on AAAA talent and reclamation projects. On top of that, Yovani Gallardo, Wade Miley, and Drew Smyly are the three established major league starters Dipoto has acquired for preseason rotations in his tenure. When the teams’ primary starting assets have decayed, Dipoto has replaced them with what is essentially crap, with the exception of Mike Leake. So what the rotation really needs is another Mike Leake; someone who’s going to throw just shy of 200 innings with an ERA around 4.00. Alex Cobb (179.1, 3.66) is an option, but he might be too expensive, with MLBTR projecting him for 4 years/$48mil, and missed 2015 after Tommy John surgery. Chris Tillman posted a 3.77 ERA in 172 innings in 2016 but collapsed last season so he could sign a one-year deal for single digit millions, similar to what Gallardo signed last year. My favorite choice is my one of my all-time favorite Mariners, Jason Vargas (179.2, 4.16). Vargas is coming off the best season of his career by BRef WAR, but MLBTR projects him to sign for just 1 year/$10 million. Bring him home, Jerry.

Charlie: Sign Lance Lynn

I get Patrick’s monetary concerns, as the Mariners salary for 2018 is already projected to top $140 million. And yes, Lance Lynn comes with draft-pick compensation to the St. Louis Cardinals. And yes, he’ll cost more than Alex Cobb, Anthony’s recommendation (below). But Lynn’s draft-pick compensation to the Cardinals also depresses his signing value, and MLBTR expects him to sign in the 4/$60 million range, which would have him playing for the Ners through his age-34 season. Even with his recent Tommy John surgery, Lynn has been good for 185+ innings and a sub-4.00 ERA the last 5 seasons. His career FIP is 3.64, carrying a respectable 114 ERA+. He slots in as the 3 or 4 starter behind Pax/Felix/Leake, and actually gives the rotation some depth (assuming none of the top 3 in the rotation get hurt – *spoiler* at least 2 of them will). But the clock is ticking on this iteration of the Seattle Mariners, and if the front office doesn’t pony up this season, the Ners will be looking up at the Astros/Angels/Rangers for the next decade in the AL West. It’s now or never, especially considering the Ners have hovered in the limbo of semi-playoff contention since Dipoto took over.

Travis: Sneak into the Yu Darvish sweepstakes.

It’s not going to happen...but people are hinting at some sort of mystery team that Darvish is considering among his listed favorites. What if that team was the Ners? He wouldn’t bring the madness that Ohtani would have, but he would still bring out the fans and obviously benefit the rotation. Again: it’s not going to happen...but then again, none of us said Ohtani to LA was going to happen.

Anthony: Sign Alex Cobb.

The Mariners need a starting pitcher, duh. Signing a top of the rotation arm, like Yu Darvish would be awesome, but paying Yu Darvish/Jake Arrieta for the number of years they are demanding will not be awesome. Signing someone off the scrap heap, like Scott Feldman, AJ Griffin, or Andrew Cashner is not going to help the rotation much, and I’d rather Gonzales, Andrew Moore, or Miranda get those starts so we have a better idea of what they are. Enter the compromise solution: Alex Cobb, a former very-good middle-of-the- rotation pitcher who went through Tommy John in 2015. Cobb may not regain his form from 2013-2014 when his ERA was below 3, his K/9 was over 8, and he accumulated 5.3 fWAR. But after losing 2015 and most of 2016, Cobb bounced back in 2017 and threw the most innings he has in his career. He excelled in the second half of the 2017 season, his K% jumped five points and his GB% jumped seven points, so a return to form is possible. Cobb will be more expensive than Vargas and Jaime Garcia, with predictions landing in the 4/$48-60 mil range, and he has had injury problems his whole career. But if the M’s are going to compete in the West, we need to add a starting pitcher who can put up over 2 WAR a season. Cobb has done that every full year he has pitched and he would be a great 3rd or 4th starter in the rotation.

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