2017: The Good, The Bad, & The WTF

Win streaks and losing streaks. RBI leaders and career low seasons. Cy Young contenders, Wild Card contenders, and contenders for the worst injury luck in MLB history…2017 had it all. Join us, as our writers use this season’s final MM to look back over the 2017 Mariners, examining the best, the worst, and the possibilities for the future.

The Good

-- Best Moment of 2017 --

Travis: The Day the Ners Held the Second Wild Card Spot (August 9)

For me, this was for me the pinnacle moment of 2017. It was when all of the optimism came to a surge – when we finally pushed to three games over .500 and snagged that evasive second Wild Card spot, which felt like it dangled itself out there in front of us, taunting the team and fanbase this entire season. While we were only in this position for a day (literally, it was one day), it was enough to rile up all Ners supporters into thinking that not only were we going to sustain our (recent) winning ways and go to New York for the play-in game, but we were going to win that game, win the next two series, and win the World Series for the first time ever. That picture above was what we were striving for since the very beginning of the season – and for one fleeting instance, it was ours. I loved it.

Anthony: When the Ners Defeated the Tigers to Reach .500 (June 21)

This was the best win of the season because of the stakes, the matchup, and the hilariously hot takes that it generated. First of all, this was when the Mariners were hoping to make a run back above .500 – and this win finally did. (Before this game, we realized that this team had an abject fear of being over .500). So the game mattered, and getting to 37-37 was still a big deal. Second, Justin Verlander is still really good and it looked like he was going to make a run at history; I was pretty resigned to the Ners at least getting shutout if not no-noed (or perfected). Then Dyson bunted his way on, and Verlander got chased by a Nelson Cruz double. The game went from “Please score a run” to “Please don’t blow the lead.” Then, to top it all off, old-timer-baseball-twitter takes started and Dyson was immediately labeled as bush-league for breaking up a perfecto with a bunt…until the Ners scored three runs after the incident, eventually won the game, and Verlander himself even came out and said he was fine with it all.

Patrick: Mike Zunino’s Walk-off Dinger Against the Twins (June 7)

This was definitely one of the high points of the season, right along with that day in August where the Ners held the second Wild Card, as Travis discussed. Along with being simply magical, June 7th’s victory was the last win in an eight-game streak that powered the team back to relevance two months into the season. It was also the real jumping-off point for Junino, the month that restarted Zunino’s career. He hit two homers in that game, but to that point in his career he probably hadn’t had a more impressive dinger than the 2-run blast to dead center to immediately flip a loss into a win. Z would hit seven more homers in June and raise his average from .184 to .240, giving him a chance to finish at .250 for the year with a strong final few games.

-- Best Player of 2017 --

Anthony: Nelson Cruz

Is Nelson Cruz a robot? He was supposed to be a disaster in the last years of his contract: an expensive, 37-year-old DH who had lost bat speed and was now a hole in the lineup. (Like most Mariner DH’s since Edgar). But Cruz has the exact same average as last year, and an OPS that is marginally higher. He has only hit 37 dingers this year (hah), but he has 115 RBI’s and has been as reliable of a power hitter as we can ask for. Remember the dark ages of Jose Vidro and Carl Everett at DH? We are spoiled to have such reliable production from the DH spot, and while I remain skeptical that Cruz should get a long contract after 2018, his value to the team this year has been massive, and I am excited to see if he can break 40 HR’s by the end of the season.

Patrick: (Also) Nelson Cruz

He’s the team leader in homers, RBI, and WAR, and is second in batting average. This was supposed to be a down year for him as his decline begins. Instead, he has a chance to post a fourth consecutive 40-homer season. The real genius behind Cruz this year came from the level of self-preservation that Scott Servais gave him. Last year, he played nearly 50 games in the field. This year, he played the field just five times, with Servais specifically citing the need to keep him healthy for the change. Mission accomplished.

Travis: James Paxton

I was going to say Nelson Cruz – but for variety’s sake I’ll go with Paxton. Yes, he landed on the DL twice this season (and yes, he struggled in his final few starts of the year) but whoa, did we see what he was capable of during June and July. The seven consecutive victories was a franchise record, and turned the heads of the rest of the league. At one point, when he was 12-3, people were putting him up there with Chris Sale for Cy Young contenders. Even if he had remained healthy, he probably wouldn’t have won...but it was nice to have someone other than Felix be a lockdown pitcher in the rotation. (Cruz was still the best player on the team though).

The Bad

-- Worst Moment of 2017 --

Travis: That Infamous Series Against The Angels (August 10-13)

This was when the season ended. Mariners fandom was at an all-season high, after the team leapfrogged the cluster of mediocre Wild Card-chasing squads to isolate themselves as sole owners of the 2nd ALWC spot. James Paxton was on the hill for the opener of the biggest series of the year, a 4-game home session against the division rival Angels (who were also competing for the spot that we held). It was Edgar Weekend, and nearly each game was sold out to commemorate one of the franchise’s greatest and most beloved players…and it all collapsed in front of us.

Paxton ended his streak of seven consecutive victories and got injured in the first game, returning to the DL in backbreaking fashion. Eddy couldn’t lock down the top of the 9th after the team scored 3 in the bottom of the 8th to tie it up, and we lost in heartbreaking fashion. The Mariners surrendered their hold on the second AL Wild Card spot, dropped every game of that series to the Angels, totally wrecked Edgar weekend, and never recovered. It was the series that broke the 2017 Ners.

Patrick: When James Paxton Went Down (August 10)

For much of the season, the rotation was “four guys and the Big Maple.” After Paxton went down with a pectoral injury in the seventh inning of loss to the Angels just a day after the team had gone three games over .500, the rotation became just “five guys” (shouts to burgers). The dream of the playoffs pretty much died there, as that was the 1st game of an Angels sweep that would put the Ners back under .500. Paxton has come back in September for a few cameos that have gone poorly. If he can somehow stay healthy, he’s one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball…but unfortunately, he showed once again that full season health is basically a pipe dream.

Anthony: Any Game During the September Skid (September 15-21)

This six-game losing streak put the last nail in the coffin of the 2017 season, then incinerated the coffin and sent the ashes to the far reaches of space in a rocket ship. Most fans had checked out at this point, we were 3.5 back of the Twins and essentially needed to win out to make the playoffs. Then we lost six straight to the Astros and Rangers and the season was gone. There were certainly worse single games during the year (looking at you, Yankees game with 100 errors), but this stretch of games really encapsulated the frustration of the year. Paxton lost twice, Vincent blew a game, and the offense got dominated by Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, and Cole Hamels. Sometimes the pitching was bad, sometimes the offense was bad, and sometimes we had shitty luck. Whatever it was for each of the six games, this is the stretch that, in my opinion, officially ended the Mariners season.

-- Most Disappointing Player of 2017 --

Patrick: Kyle Seager

I think most Mariners fans have a long leash of tolerance for Seags – myself included. That’s probably because he’s one of the only successful homegrown hitters the Ners have had in recent years. But this year was a pretty significant step back for the $100 million man. 2017 will be the worst full season of Seager’s career by WAR, as he’s following up a 7 WAR season with a 2.5 WAR year. He’s also on track to post the worst batting average of his career by roughly 10 points, along with his worst OBP since 2012 and worst slugging percentage since 2013. If the team is truly all in for 2018, Seager will need to be more 2016 than 2017 to make a playoff push. And please, no more errors at third.

Anthony: Drew Smyly

There was a lot of disappointment to go around this season but the worst for me was Smyly. Losing him for the entire year after a dominant start in the World Baseball Classic was the first of many gut punches delivered by 2017, but the price to acquire Smyly made his absence worse. Luiz Gohara, who became Mallex Smith, who became Smyly, climbed from A-ball in the Braves system to the MLB in one season, and while the Braves are the Braves, Gohara will be 22 next year and will be a member of Atlanta’s 2018 rotation. He wouldn’t have made such a large jump in the Mariners system, but he would have been a bright spot in a very dark farm system. But we have Smyly, who may not even pitch in 2018 after a 12-15 month recovery period from Tommy John in July. I liked this move when it happened…now, not so much.

Travis: Hisashi Iwakuma

The fact that you are probably struggling to remember whether or not he actually pitched this season is justification enough for me placing Kuma here. Remember just a few years ago, when this guy was an All-Star and we were all upset that he was about to head to Los Angeles? Remember how ecstatic we were when he wound up staying in Seattle? Remember his no-hitter? Now take a look at where he is. Hisashi’s injury woes are up there with those of Felix, but even when he has been healthy he has been incredibly mediocre. As I look ahead to next season, I don’t even plan on thinking about Iwakuma once…just like this season.

-- Real Quick: Was the 2017 Season a Success? --

Anthony: No

This team has so much talent that any non-playoff season is a failure. There were some bright spots (in Gamel, Haniger and Heredia), but another year sitting at home in October means the team did not succeed – it’s that simple.

Patrick: No

I mean, I still enjoyed the hell out of it, but no, ultimately it wasn’t. It doesn’t really feel like it was because of any particular failings though. The pitchers just couldn’t stay healthy.

Travis: No

Ugh. No. As Anthony said, we’re now at the point where it’s playoffs or bust. 17 seasons is simply too long to go without getting out of the regular season. I was nine years old the last time the Ners played in October. I barely remember it.

-- What Do You Want in the Offseason? --

Patrick: A Starting Pitcher & Yonder Alonso

I’m definitely not going to predict that the Mariners will make the playoffs next year, given their ability to pull disappointing seasons out of the jaws of triumph. That said, there’s an obvious hole in the rotation still, since Felix and Paxton will likely miss 5-10 starts apiece. It’s not an easy fix though, given how bad the free agent SP market is…so I would really like the team to re-sign Yonder Alonso to keep his dangerous bat in the middle of the order. He doesn’t give them much balance as far as handedness goes, but he has a great relationship with Cano and is an all-star bat who likes the organization. Another veteran in the bullpen would help, but not an overpaid shitty one like Marc Rzcepzynski. The biggest thing they need is better injury luck. The way they hit this year, they probably make the playoffs without a rotation of Andrew Albers, Erasmo Ramirez, Yovani Gallardo, Ariel Miranda, and Marco Gonzalez for a key stretch in August.

Travis: Re-Sign Danny Valencia

I know it sounds like an obscure thing to wish for, but I simply loved some of the production that we received out of Danny this year. Him being a platoon was part of the original plan until Dan Vogelbach showed his true colors – but when Yonder came around, things started to take shape. I liked having a good, dangerous, middle-of-the-order bat in the lineup behind Seager on any day of the week, and would love to see that continue. Oh, and let’s sign one more Drew Smyly-esque starting pitcher...preferably one without a soggy arm, however.

Anthony: Shohei Otani?

Gimme some Shohei! He (potentially) fills a hole in the rotation and in the lineup, and is the most exciting Japanese player to cross the Pacific since Munenori Kawasaki (since Ichiro). But assuming we do not win the Otani lottery (and there’s a good chance we don’t), we need starting pitching. Paxton, Felix, Ramirez, Miranda, and Smyly have all proven either injury prone, inconsistent, or both. Adding depth behind Mike Leake (Mike Leake!), is important but would be expensive. The price is scary, but I really cannot watch more starts by Christian Bergman or Casey Lawrence. The team also has to decide if Dan Vogelbach is finally ready to play, and will need to grab someone who can platoon with him or take the majority of the innings if he is not ready. The outfield is set, the infield is mostly set…it’s just pitching and first base that need the work.

The WTF

-- Charting The Happiness of Mariner Fans --

Throughout this 2017 season, we at Mariner Muse have done a “Happiness Index” in every one of our newsletters. The goal was to estimate the current level of happiness that Ner fans were experiencing at that moment in the season, through measuring averages from our own perceptions based on offense, defense, starting pitching, relief pitching, and management. When the team was on a winning streak, things were great – when they lost a bunch, morale plummeted. We added it all up…and the line of our season’s happiness looks like this:

It’s interesting, isn’t it? Throughout this season, we never really had utter despair nor heights of ecstasy. The lowest point of the year was the beginning when we started off at 2-8, while the highest point of the year was in mid-June, when we won 8 straight capped by Zunino’s walk-off home run. After that, things pretty much plateaued in the 70-75% range. But that’s what the 2017 Ners were, wasn’t it? 75%. A C-grade team. Not horrible, but definitely not great.

“C’s get degrees” is a famous phrase in college. It worked for those who wanted to skate by, do the least amount of work possible, and still find a way to graduate. But it doesn’t work in baseball. C’s don’t get degrees in MLB – they get you 16 straight years of silence in October.

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