Final Month: What'll It Take?

October is coming. Will the Mariners be there? “Probably not,” history says.

But there’s always hope, isn’t there? This team has shown an incredible ability to dig itself out of holes when we least expect it. So, in one last bout of blind optimism, the MM staff takes a look at what the team needs in order to once again celebrate like the image above and finally end this 16-year playoff drought.

The Hitters Who Need to Step Up

From a season perspective, the team has been pretty good overall at the plate. At least five out of the starting nine every night are hitting somewhere around .270, and that’s the first time in many, many years that we can say that. Yet with the pitching staff racking up an ER-bill that’s worthy of a TV hospital drama, the offense is going to need to step up at the plate even more in the final month of play. Here are three hitters who we see as key to the Ners’ September success.

Patrick: Mitch Haniger

Fun fact (not a fun fact): Mitch Haniger had as much WAR when he went on the DL in late April as he does now. That’s not very good! Also not very good? The Ners outfield at the plate right now. Ben Gamel has significantly regressed in the second half (which was to be expected), but he’s still the team’s most consistent outfield option at the plate. Jarrod Dyson relies on speed – and has a groin injury. Guillermo Heredia has been an American professional baseball player for roughly 15 months. This team NEEDS Mitch Haniger to creep back toward his April form. He’s had horrible injury luck this season, including getting drilled in the head, but now is the time for him to step up and lock down the six-spot in the lineup. Wednesday in Baltimore was a good start.

Ideal Statline for Sep. 1 – Oct. 2: .280 BA, .360 OBP, 5 HR

Travis: Jean Segura

It’s a weird thing to say, but I fear that Robinson Cano’s influence on the young shortstop might actually be hindering his late-season production. Jean’s numbers are off, and his laziness is up...which (sadly) sounds like Cano. Segura’s 3 errors in the first inning on Sunday were all the product of a lack of concentration, and he looked as if he didn’t care when he struck out for the 1st out in the 5th after working a 3-0 count with runners on 1st and 2nd and 0 out. He thanked Cano on his jersey for players weekend, and I see far too much Cano-suck-up in him right now. If Jean can shake the “I’m too cool for this” vibe that seems to be plaguing him right now and return to the hard-working shortstop that we know he is, he can carry this team. We know he can hit, but I would like to see him work more walks and eek out infield singles to show that the top of the order is giving all it’s got to get on base for the Cano/Cruz/Seager trio to hit them in. In a nutshell, what I want most out of Segura is simply effort.

Ideal Statline: .300 BA, .400 OBP, 15+ Runs, ≤3 Errors

Anthony: Kyle Seager

As a Kyle Seager fantasy baseball owner, his line is one of the first things I look at when I check out a Ners boxscore…and it hasn’t been great this year. My gripe is not that he has been bad – he is still an above average 3rd baseman in this league and deserves that $100 million contract – but he has regressed back to his career averages instead of building on a great 2016. As Kyle approaches his prime, I was hoping last season was a further step forward offensively and that the jump in his average and OPS would stick. Alas, his slash line is instead closer to his first two years in the league than 2016, when he finished 12th in MVP voting. With the pitching staff in shambles, the offense will need to score like crazy in September…and Seager will need to lead that charge.

Ideal Statline for Sep. 1 – Oct. 2: .300 BA, .400 OBP, .500 OPS, 9 HR, 25 RBI

The Pitchers Who Need to Step Up

Oh, what a season it’s been for the Mariners pitching staff. With injuries here, there, and everywhere, the team has had to spot-start guys who we as fans had no idea were even on the team until they stepped onto the mound. The Ners have used 37 different pitchers this year – tied for the MLB record – and just signed Mike Leake, who will soon make it 38. But as September rolls around and Felix and Paxton near a return, we will need this rag-tag bunch of throwers to assemble one month of consistency if we are to play in October. Here is who can help make that happen:

Anthony: Ariel Miranda

It feels like the Ners have been stuck with a AAA rotation for the entire year, as Felix and Paxton have dealt with multiple DL stints and Smyly and Kuma are now essentially nothing. This has forced Miranda into the nominal #1 starter role in the rotation, which is not good. But if we are going to make the playoffs, he will be the most important pitcher on the roster. We need to win at least 3 out of every 5 games we play for the rest of the season, which means we need solid starts out of 3 of the 5 guys in the rotation each time through. When Paxton and Felix return, that should give us two solid starts. And if we can’t get reliable innings from those two, we won’t be making the playoffs anyway. That leaves Miranda, Gallardo, and Ramirez to deliver at least one win each time through, and while Erasmo has been good (recently), his dinger problem could rear its ugly head at any time. Miranda has also had HR-related problems (like Wednesday), but I’m hoping he’ll be able to bring it together.

Ideal Statline for Sep. 1 – Oct. 2: 3-0, 2.50 ERA, ≤5 HR

Patrick: Yovani Gallardo

Helluva -0.2 WAR season he’s having. But when you’re the only healthy veteran starter in a rotation, you’re going to need to do big things to keep that team afloat. Maybe big things isn’t the right word. Gallardo needs to get through starts and give the Ners a chance to win every time he takes the ball. He’s made seven starts since returning to the rotation full-time last month and in that span he’s pitched into the sixth inning just three times and finished it once. He’s going to give up runs, as his astronomical 5.80 ERA this season shows, but the Ners desperately need Gallardo to pitch into the sixth inning every time he starts from here on out. That means no big innings where he completely loses his starts and limiting unnecessary two-out damage. Also for God’s sake, no more leadoff dingers.

Ideal Statline for Sep. 1 – Oct 2: 2-1, .350 ERA, 3 Quality Starts, >5 innings per start

Travis: Edwin Diaz

This one feels like a no-brainer – but it’s even more important now than you think. The Mariners pitching is sinking faster than Venice, and games when we randomly find ourselves ahead in the late innings are a must-win in this final month. With our good offense and high ERA, we will most definitely be competing in a good amount of slugfests down the stretch of this season – and we’re going to have to find ways to win them. I foresee many 7-6, 8-7, 10-8 ballgames in our near future, and the late inning bullpen must lock down those final frames. For this, I’m sorry to say it, but we have to turn to Edwin Diaz. Eddy has been electric at times this year – and Eddy’s electricity has died at times this year. He has been able to work out of inherited jams, and he has found a way to create a jam out of nothing. The wildness he showed at home against Baltimore is very much still there…but as is the 101 MPH strikeout machine he showed in New York against the Yankees for that key win in the first game of that series. From here on out, when the Mariners find themselves leading after the eighth inning, we must win the ballgame. Blowout losses will happen – and a few blowout wins might happen as well, but when the offense shows up and gives us a chance at victory, we have to convert. Cue: Eddy. You see how pumped he is in that image? I want to see that happen at least ten times this month. Doing so will probably push us a few games over .500 – which just might be enough to snag that second Wild Card spot.

Ideal Statline for Sep. 1 – Oct. 2: 1-0, 2.00 ERA, 7 Saves, ≤1 Blown Saves (let’s be realistic here)

The Series We're Gonna (Really) Need to Win

Every series in this final month is going to be crucial, and the Mariners will need to win the majority of them in order to compete for that final Wild Card spot. But a few series in particular loom as especially important, for various reasons. These are three to watch out for:

Travis: Cleveland Indians (September 22-24)

At first this sounds like an obscure answer, as it is the only series we have in the final month of play that is not against an AL-West team – 2 of which are currently competing directly with us for that 2nd AL Wild Card Spot. Yet it is exactly this obscurity that scares me. The constant series meetings against LAA, TEX, and HOU will surely maintain a similar competitive vibe…but then out of nowhere it seems, we travel to Cleveland for 3 games against one of the AL’s better squads. Performing well against the AL West is a must, but we also must show up against the Indians. If we can take 2 out of 3 at Progressive, I feel confident that the Mariners can return home to finish the season with a surge.

Patrick: Texas Rangers (September 11-14)

The Mariners’ brutal August is finally over – and with it, they have a chance to return to Safeco Field to (re)collect themselves. A 9-game homestand against the A’s, Astros and Angels should be a good chance to get back to .500 and keep the team within 2ish games of WC2. So really, how the team plays after this homestand will probably determine whether it remains in contention into the final week. The first series after the homestand is a daunting four-gamer in Texas, and could also coincide with the returns of Felix and Paxton. If the homestand provides stability, then this first road series in September is a massive one.

Anthony: Los Angeles Angels (September 8-10)

It would be easy to focus on the Angels series later in September, as the Ners end the year in Anaheim with a three game set. But before that happens, and before those games hold meaning, we have to survive the slog of AL West games that make up September. In the middle of that is this series at home, against Trout & Co. Seeing as the Angels are also in the Wild Card hunt, we need them to lose a lot. Easiest way to do that is to beat them. Another series like the one in Seattle a few weeks ago would be a huge blow to our chances…but a series win would make up some ground and keep us in the hunt.

The Call-Ups We're Most Excited to See

With the final month of the season comes roster expansions – and with roster expansions come new guys! Let’s take a break from the intensity of projecting what it’ll take for the team to make it into October, and instead take a moment to become excited for who we might see in September.

Ian Miller

Rosters expanding to 40 is one of the more fun things in baseball because you get to see guys that have one or two incredible skills, but aren’t well-rounded enough to stick at the big league level. The guy I am most excited about is Ian Miller. Nobody really saw Miller’s season coming: he only got 9 AB’s in Spring Training and started the year in AA Arkansas. But after hitting .300 there, he saw a promotion to Tacoma. His bat has certainly dropped off since the competition improved, but he should still get a cup of coffee with the Ners. What he is going to bring to the team is – to quote Will Ferrell misquoting Eleanor Roosevelt – “Hot, nasty, badass speed.” In his 9 at-bats in Spring Training, Miller had one hit and one walk, but he did steal 5 bases. In his 118 games played in the minors this year, he has 40 stolen bases. I cannot wait for Miller to pinch run in the late innings of a close game and show what speed do. Offensively we shouldn’t get excited, but with his speed he would also be a very able defensive replacement on top of the Charles Gibson-esque advantage on the bases.

Thyago Vieira

There’s not a player in the entire system besides Kyle Lewis that I’m more excited to see at the big league level than the Brazilian fireballer. We already saw him very briefly in August, and the results were predictably weird and awesome. But basically, having Edwin Diaz regularly touch 100 and Vieira (right) regularly top it will make for a fun back end of the bullpen. Unfortunately, there will probably be a lot of walks included in that arrangement. But still. Fire emojis galore.

The Record We're Gonna Need to Post

The final question for this final month of baseball is by far the biggest one. How many wins will the Mariners need to scrape out to make it to that one-game Wild Card playoff? While each of us had different answers for the questions above, we all agree on this one:

19 Wins – 9 Losses

It shouldn’t take more than 86 wins to get the second spot in the weakest Wild Card of all time. That being said, with this rag-tag rotation we’re spitting out there every day, a .666 winning percentage feels highly unlikely. Yet with Paxton and Felix on the verge of returning, hope (as always) remains.

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