Five Takes on the Current Ners

In today’s hot take sports fan culture, one of the go-to analytical tropes is to evaluate a player’s current greatness by comparing him to a star from the past. Lebron James is the best basketball player since Michael Jordan, Mike Trout is the best centerfielder since Willie Mays, Blue Jays fans are the worst thing about Canada since Justin Bieber, and so on and so forth.

Inspired by recent conversations with the Twitter folks at Lookout Landing and in our own internal MM group text (or grext, for people who like efficiency), and the fact that talent wise, this is probably the best Ners team of the past decade, I’ve compiled a group of five “best since” takes about this 2017 squad.

Many of these are open to debate and a lot of them go back a ways, because in case you haven’t noticed, the Mariners have generally sucked for a rather long period of time. If you have disagreements, please feel free to yell at us on Twitter (@MarinersMuse). We like being yelled at about the Ners, and then telling people whether they’re right or wrong.

Take #1: Jean Segura is the Mariners’ best shortstop since A-Rod.

We’ll start with the one that has come up in the MM grext probably five different times this season. As of Sunday, Segura was in a mini-slump, making outs in 15 straight at bats – which was his longest hitless stretch of 2017. (He has since walked off the Red Sox in the bottom of the 13th).

But even with the slump, Segura has an astronomical slash line of .332/.369/.454 as a Mariner. He has led the American League in hitting at multiple points this season and it’s hard not to imagine how much greater of an impact he’d have had thus far this year if he hadn’t struggled with injuries nearly constantly.

And, lest you think his amazing approach and short swing were his only assets, Segura proved that he can completely change a game with his defense. The most obvious, recent, and flat-out amazing example of this came last week, when he rescued a close game against the Astros by making all three putouts in the ninth inning of a tied game on three different sorts of plays. Segura made a phenomenal diving stop to his left and throw to first to save a run, he cut down a runner at the plate with the infield in, and then made a running play to his left where he had to absolutely rip a throw to Cano at second to keep the game alive. (For more on this game, check the “Game to Remember” of this newsletter).

According to Baseball Reference, Jean has been worth 1.7 WAR in 70 games as of Sunday. Even though there are only around 60 games left, I’ll double that and call 2017 a 3.4 WAR season for him, which he certainly would have reached without his injury issues. The last Ners SS to have a 3.4 WAR season was Brendan Ryan in 2012 – but Ryan did that hitting .194, which not only makes me question WAR as a stat but also holy shit Brendan Ryan could play defense.

Segura is a massive upgrade over Ryan, as well as the rather sucky Mariners shortstops of the mid-2000s, including Jack and Josh the Wilson brothers (they aren’t brothers), Yuni Betancourt and even Rich Aurilia. Jean is even better than the beloved Carlos Guillen, who had a great four-year stretch with the team but never hit .300 or broke 3.3 WAR.

No, Segura is the best Mariners shortstop since that guy Alex Rodriguez, who you might have heard of. Before dating JLo, Madonna, and Cameron Diaz, becoming the highest paid player in the history of American professional sports and the least popular athlete on planet earth for a time, A-Rod posted a 10 WAR season in 2000, his final one with the Mariners.

ARod’s time with the Mariners was truly astounding, as he amassed nearly 40 WAR in a 5-year stretch, making four all-star appearances and finishing in the top 10 in AL MVP voting three times during that span. Segura is under contract for another five years after signing his extension this season, and while those A-Rod numbers are far too lofty to expect from him, he’ll most likely come a lot closer than any Seattle shortstop has since.

Take #2: Nelson Cruz is the best Ners’ power hitter since Richie Sexson.

The Nelson Cruz signing is one of the few times since their playoff heyday that the Mariners have dipped into the free agent market, given out a big contract, and massively reaped the benefits. As of Sunday, Cruz has hit 107 homers in less than three seasons in Seattle, including back-to-back seasons with 43 and 44 homers respectively.

Cruz likely won’t get to 40 this year because of a huge homer drought in June, but he’s finding other ways to be awesome, including leading the AL in RBI and somehow still managing to slug .517.

Before the Cruz signing following the 2014 season, it had been a dark time for dinger hitters in a Ners uniform. Well, make that just “hitters” in general I suppose. Rock bottom for Seattle sluggers in 2010 (a 103-loss season), when Russell Branyan led the team in homers with 15 and only appeared in 57 games (But man, I can still hear “Hillbilly Deluxe” play in my head every time I say his name). Only three other Mariners hit double-digit home runs that year.

While I considered stopping on a guy like Branyan or going back as far as Ken Griffey Jr., it’s hard toignore Big Richie’s 2005 and 2006 seasons in Seattle from a sheer baseball destruction perspective.

In 2005, Sexson finished in the top 15 in the AL MVP voting with 39 dingers and a .541 slugging percentage. His decline began in 2006, but he still swatted 34 homers and slugged a tick over .500.

Richie was far worse of an overall hitter than the Boomstick, but as far as sheer power, he’s the last slugger the Mariners have had of Cruz’s ilk.

Take #3: Danny Valencia is the best Ms first baseman since John Olerud.

We’re stealing this one from Lookout Landing, the preeminent Mariners blogging community. It sounds a little crazy, but it actually makes sense. Simply put, the Ners haven’t had a first baseman with as many positive qualities or as few negative qualities as Valencia since Olerud.

Valencia has been worth 1.5 WAR already this season – and that’s still including his simply awful first few weeks. So let’s be generous and say that he’ll probably come really close to a 3 WAR season. Here’s how the Mariners have done at first base in WAR since Olerud was released in 2004:

2016: Adam Lind -0.3

2015: Logan Morrison -0.1

2014: Logan Morrison 1.4

2013: Justin Smoak 1.0

2012: Justin Smoak -0.3

2011: Justin Smoak 0.9

2010: Casey Kotchman -0.8

2009: Russell Branyan 2.6

2008: Richie Sexson 0.1

2007: Richie Sexson -1.1

2006: Richie Sexson 2.7

2005: Richie Sexson 3.5

You might be able to talk me into Sexson as good enough for this comparison, but I just can’t separate how truly awful he was in 2007 and 2008. Branyan was a one-trick pony, and both he and Sexson struck out an astronomical amount. Maybe it’s recent bias, but Valencia’s consistency has been a welcome change after years of up and down awfulness.

Olerud is one of the best first basemen in franchise history, probably trailing only Mr. Mariner Alvin Davis. John had two 5 WAR seasons and won three gold gloves in Seattle in only 4.5 years. The team hasn’t had a first baseman that can both hit and defend competently since Olerud, but they may have found one in Valencia…albeit, probably never quite at such an elite level.

Take #4: Mitch/Gamel/Dyson/Heredia is the Ms’ best defensive OF since ’03.

This year’s outfield is a complete 180 from any ever assembled in the Jack Zduriencik era. Instead of finding unathletic power hitters and sticking them in the corners and then converting an athletic-ish middle infielder to play centerfield (we don’t talk enough about how dumb this strategy was…also shoutout to Brad Miller), Jerry Dipoto added four outfielders in less than a year that can run down fly balls and also hold their own at the plate.

Each one of Ben Gamel, Jarrod Dyson, Mitch Haniger, and Guillermo Heredia have been worth at least 1.5 WAR this season – and again, all of these players were added to the organization since March 14, 2016. Meanwhile, Dyson, Haniger, and Heredia currently lead the team in defensive WAR.

Weirdly, Gamel ranks as a really poor defender (-0.9 WAR) according to BRef. This confuses me, because he’s pretty athletic out there and has made some phenomenal plays. Even still, it’s an incredible defensive outfield that significantly improves on recent units that have occasionally featured the likes of Raul Ibanez and Mark Trumbo (left).

The 2003 season isn’t remembered very fondly in Seattle because the Mariners missed the playoffs, but this team was actually very good! They won 93 games and BRef’s Pythagorean calculation says they should’ve won 97. Had the second wild card existed back then, they would have made the playoffs. (Damn).

That year, the team featured two of the preeminent defensive outfielders of their era, in Ichiro and Mike Cameron. The third outfielder, Randy Winn, was an overqualified left fielder defensively and would go on to play centerfield for the 2004 Ners. All three of these guys played at least 147 games, and all three of them also posted a WAR of at least 3.5.

The 2003 outfield is one of the few times the Mariners have had a consistent three-man unit in their history. Perspective: in 2017, they have four capable outfielders.

Take #5: James Paxton is the best lefty starter on the Ners since Cliff Lee.

James Paxton finally made the leap in 2017. Although he’s still had injury issues, he’s had two dominant stretches, both to start the season and the one he’s in the midst of right now. Paxton leads the team in WAR at 2.6 and his 2.84 ERA is third in the American League, behind Chris Sale and Corey Kluber.

It’s not just his statistical dominance that’s impressive, though. Pax has outings where he looks flat-out unhittable – such as Monday, when he allowed just four hits and did not allow a runner to reach third base until the seventh inning.

The Big Maple’s 17-start stretch rather closely mirrors the tenure of the last dominant lefty the Mariners had: Cliff Lee. Lee only made 13 starts with the team before being dealt at the 2010 trade deadline (thanks, Eric Byrnes), but he made the most of his short time in Seattle, going 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA. Lee was absolutely absurd, posting five complete games and striking out 89 while walking just six.

Paxton certainly isn’t on that level, having never thrown a complete game in his career and walking 31 this year, but stretches like his 5-0 July certainly flash that kind of potential.

. . .

I had initially considered comparing the entire lineup to the Mariner they were the best since at their position, but I quickly realized that wouldn’t work. Partly that’s because the outfield should be considered as a unit because they’re so new and similar…and also because Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager don’t have historical precedents in the organization. They’re both the best players at their positions in franchise history and we’re lucky to watch them on a daily basis.

It’s also amazing just how talented this team is as a whole, which makes it equally as frustrating that they can’t put together a sustained stretch of success and make a legitimate playoff push. Until that somehow materializes, just kick back and enjoy the stars. We’ve got a bunch.

#StatisticalAnalysis #TeamOverview